Prominent crypto trader and market expert, Michael van de Poppe, has come out with an answer to the question that has long lingered in every crypto enthusiast’s mind: “When will the altcoin season arrive?”
The border crypto community has been growing frustrated with altcoins remaining stagnant while Bitcoin (BTC) continued to surge to new peaks. Late last month, BTC registered a new all-time high of around $112,000, taking control of over 60% of the cryptocurrency market. In contrast, Ether (ETH), the second-largest crypto, only accounted for 9% of the $3.3 trillion market.
Van de Poppe Claims Last Real Altcoin Season was in 2017 and the Market Hasn’t Been the Same Since
In a detailed X-post, the veteran trader drew a clear picture of how the trend is conceived. He noted that the real opportunity in the altcoin market comes before the term “altseason” even starts trending, and those who enter during the hype phase often miss out on the best gains.
Michael claims that altcoins haven’t been doing well since late 2021, and the last real “altseason” was in 2017, when almost every other cryptocurrency surged. However, he pointed out that this pattern hasn’t repeated itself since. He argued that the prolonged bearish trend since 2021, combined with the 2024 memecoin frenzy, has suppressed the altcoin market, with investor sentiment at an all-time low.
In 2021, it was the newer altcoins that surged while older ones struggled to catch up, and last year, the hype was all about memecoins, not altcoins. Van de Poppe also pointed out that in the last four years, Bitcoin has seen its price increase by $65,000, but during that period, 95% of all altcoins had already recorded their peaks and were starting to drop in value, which made investors turn their focus away from them.
Altcoin Market is Being Determined by Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Trends
Most experts continue to depend on the four-year cycle theory to predict the altseason, but van de Poppe believes that the market is now dominated by new patterns, such as changing macroeconomic trends and institutional crypto adoption rates. According to the prominent trader, the main reason altcoins are underperforming is that the market is still in the Bitcoin season, and people refrain from taking risks.
He reasoned that altcoins are lacking demand due to decisions by global central banks forcing governments to adapt their economic policies, and the ongoing trade war between the United States and its international partners that has triggered recession fears. However, he views the growing interest in DeFi as a fundamental progress for altcoins.
Van de Poppe noted that gold registering new all-time highs is making people feel safer about investing in risky assets like equities and crypto. Another positive development is the Chinese Renminbi gaining strength against the US dollar, which is often viewed as a bullish signal for ETH and could lead to the crypto faring better than BTC.
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Opportunities in Altcoins Lie in Long-Term Value Rather Than Waiting for the Hype, Says Van de Poppe
The trader believes that the anticipation for an impending altcoin season has created two groups of people: one that still expects a bear market, and the other that is eagerly awaiting a fresh bull run. However, he suggested both sides might be wrong because the real opportunity lies in focusing on the value rather than waiting for the right time.
He believes that the time is good to invest in altcoins as most of the leading ones are priced low and have strong projections. Van de Poppe’s definition of an altseason is the period when investors can strongly and quietly accumulate undervalued coins while their market sentiment remains low, to profit when the rest of the market catches on.